← NEXUS PHANTOM MONCARCH STORE CHAMPIONSHIP
Water FractalTier 1
at NEXUS PHANTOM MONCARCH STORE CHAMPIONSHIP
decks
1
(11.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
2-1-1
overall winrate
62.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
56.4%
avg ELO +4.1 per match
expected value
52.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1293
· median 1293
· range 1293–1293
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1154
Q1 1165
Q3 1356
1499
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 22.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 11.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.4% | +2.2 |
| Slimes | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.3% | -9.1 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.8 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
